US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced -2.5pts: 13¢ at window start → 10¢ at close
• OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: below the lower bound 13¢ (band 13¢–22¢)
  band from 166 hourly obs / 7.0d
• BOOK Book 1.2:1 bid, $21.7k/$18.7k within 10¢
• VOLUME 1.0× this market's 7-day norm, $27.5k in 24h

Book 1.2:1 bid, $21.7k/$18.7k within 10¢ · spread 2.0¢

Triggers (1)

• 19 Aug 2026, 14:06 UTC: Sustained reprice: 13¢ → 10¢ (-3.0pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.37× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 21 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 10¢, drift -0.5pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 11¢, held +2.0ptspts
• Peak move: +3.0pts
• Held 83% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: no
• Price at close: 10¢
• Graded from 176 snapshots