Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced -1.0pts: 9¢ at window start → 8¢ at close
• OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: below the lower bound 9¢ (band 9¢–16¢)
  band from 166 hourly obs / 7.0d
• VOLUME 5.2× this market's 7-day norm, $800.8k in 24h
• BOOK Book 1.1:1 bid, $65.1k/$56.7k within 10¢
• UNUSUAL SIZE Largest trade $6.6k, 6.8× this market's typical big trade
  size baseline: 95th pct of 1,484 trades / 7d

Book 1.1:1 bid, $65.1k/$56.7k within 10¢ · spread 1.0¢

Triggers (1)

• 19 Aug 2026, 00:23 UTC: Sustained reprice: 9¢ → 6¢ (-3.0pts), confirmed over 30s

Context artifact

@FirstSquawk · X: posted 45 min before the break

OIL RISES FOR A FOURTH DAY AS US-IRAN TALKS STALL; WTI CLIMBS ABOVE $85 AND BRENT HOLDS ABOVE $91. || HORMUZ TRAFFIC REMAINS LIMITED AMID THE DEADLOCK, WHILE A MODEST US CRUDE INVENTORY DRAW ADDS SUPPORT TO PRICES AND KEEPS INFLATION RISKS ELEVATED.

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Shown as timing context from the sources TruthPing watches. Its appearance near the move is an observation, not an explanation.

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.46× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 180 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 6¢, drift +0.0pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 7¢, held +2.0ptspts
• Peak move: +3.0pts
• Held 33% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: no
• Price at close: 8¢
• Graded from 180 snapshots