Number of rate cuts in 2026?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced +0.6pts: 86¢ at window start → 87¢ at close
• VOLUME 3.1× this market's 7-day norm, $4.5k in 24h
• BOOK Book 18.4:1 bid, $45.3k/$2.5k within 10¢

Book 18.4:1 bid, $45.3k/$2.5k within 10¢ · spread 0.3¢

Triggers (1)

• 19 Aug 2026, 13:44 UTC: Band breach (upper): 86¢ → 87¢ (+0.7pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.23× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 4 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 87¢, drift +0.0pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 87¢, held +0.7ptspts
• Peak move: +0.8pts
• Held 80% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: no
• Price at close: 87¢
• Graded from 176 snapshots