Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced -1.5pts: 18¢ at window start → 17¢ at close
• OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: below the lower bound 18¢ (band 18¢–23¢)
  band from 168 hourly obs / 7.0d
• BOOK Book 1.8:1 bid, $8.0k/$4.3k within 10¢
• VOLUME 0.8× this market's 7-day norm, $4.1k in 24h

Book 1.8:1 bid, $8.0k/$4.3k within 10¢ · spread 1.0¢

Triggers (1)

• 19 Aug 2026, 11:55 UTC: Band breach (lower): 18¢ → 17¢ (-1.0pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.18× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 2 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 17¢, drift +0.5pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 17¢, held +1.5ptspts
• Peak move: +1.5pts
• Held 100% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: no
• Price at close: 17¢
• Graded from 180 snapshots