Michigan Senate winner?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced +1.0pts: 57¢ at window start → 59¢ at close
• OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: above the upper bound 58¢ (band 55¢–58¢)
  band from 167 hourly obs / 7.0d
• BOOK Book 2.3:1 bid, $144.3k/$61.7k within 10¢
• VOLUME 1.1× this market's 7-day norm, $25.5k in 24h

Book 2.3:1 bid, $144.3k/$61.7k within 10¢ · spread 1.0¢

Triggers (1)

• 19 Aug 2026, 16:37 UTC: Band breach (upper): 57¢ → 59¢ (+1.0pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.33× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 11 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 59¢, drift +0.0pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 59¢, held +1.0ptspts
• Peak move: +1.0pts
• Held 100% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: no
• Price at close: 59¢
• Graded from 180 snapshots