Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 31?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced +0.5pts: 95¢ at window start → 96¢ at close
• BOOK Book 1.3:1 ask, $83.0k/$110.1k within 10¢
• UNUSUAL SIZE Largest trade $1.2k, 1.0× this market's typical big trade
  size baseline: 95th pct of 1,017 trades / 7d
• VOLUME 0.7× this market's 7-day norm, $59.4k in 24h

Book 1.3:1 ask, $83.0k/$110.1k within 10¢ · spread 1.0¢

Triggers (1)

• 19 Aug 2026, 18:13 UTC: Band breach (upper): 95¢ → 96¢ (+0.5pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.13× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 6 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 96¢, drift +0.0pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 96¢, held +0.5ptspts
• Peak move: +0.5pts
• Held 100% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: no
• Price at close: 96¢
• Graded from 179 snapshots