Iran leadership change by December 31?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced -1.0pts: 17¢ at window start → 16¢ at close
• OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: below the lower bound 16¢ (band 16¢–19¢)
  band from 166 hourly obs / 7.0d
• BOOK Book 11.4:1 bid, $161.0k/$14.1k within 10¢
• VOLUME 0.8× this market's 7-day norm, $4.7k in 24h

Book 11.4:1 bid, $161.0k/$14.1k within 10¢ · spread 1.0¢

Triggers (1)

• 19 Aug 2026, 07:28 UTC: Band breach (lower): 17¢ → 16¢ (-1.0pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.33× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 3 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 16¢, drift +0.0pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 16¢, held +1.0ptspts
• Peak move: +1.0pts
• Held 100% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: no
• Price at close: 16¢
• Graded from 180 snapshots