China x Philippines military clash before 2027?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced -2.5pts: 33¢ at window start → 30¢ at close
• OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: below the lower bound 32¢ (band 32¢–35¢)
  band from 167 hourly obs / 7.0d
• BOOK Book 2.1:1 ask, $3.0k/$6.2k within 10¢
• UNUSUAL SIZE Largest trade $13.1k, 7.1× this market's typical big trade
  size baseline: 95th pct of 120 trades / 7d
• VOLUME $19.8k in 24h (7-day norm still forming)
  volume summed from the market's own trade tape

Book 2.1:1 ask, $3.0k/$6.2k within 10¢ · spread 2.0¢

Triggers (1)

• 19 Aug 2026, 08:04 UTC: Band breach (lower): 33¢ → 32¢ (-1.0pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.33× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 8 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 32¢, drift +0.0pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 31¢, held +2.0ptspts
• Peak move: +2.5pts
• Held 100% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: yes
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: yes
• Gave back half within 60m: no
• Price at close: 30¢
• Graded from 141 snapshots