Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced +0.5pts: 73¢ at window start → 74¢ at close
• OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: above the upper bound 73¢ (band 67¢–73¢)
  band from 166 hourly obs / 7.0d
• VOLUME 8.6× this market's 7-day norm, $469.8k in 24h
• BOOK Book 4.7:1 ask, $72.8k/$343.2k within 10¢

Book 4.7:1 ask, $72.8k/$343.2k within 10¢ · spread 1.0¢

Triggers (1)

• 18 Aug 2026, 17:59 UTC: Band breach (upper): 73¢ → 74¢ (+0.5pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.07× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 12 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 74¢, drift +0.0pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 74¢, held +0.5ptspts
• Peak move: +0.5pts
• Held 100% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: no
• Price at close: 74¢
• Graded from 180 snapshots