Will Trump be impeached?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced +0.5pts: 56¢ at window start → 56¢ at close
• VOLUME 5.8× this market's 7-day norm, $8.3k in 24h
• BOOK Book 6.0:1 bid, $72.1k/$12.1k within 10¢

Book 6.0:1 bid, $72.1k/$12.1k within 10¢ · spread 1.0¢

Triggers (1)

• 18 Aug 2026, 01:55 UTC: Band breach (upper): 56¢ → 57¢ (+1.0pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.25× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 2 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 57¢, drift +0.0pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 57¢, held +1.5ptspts
• Peak move: +1.5pts
• Held 33% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: no
• Price at close: 56¢
• Graded from 180 snapshots