Will Russia enter Dopropillia by December 31, 2026?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced -1.0pts: 82¢ at window start → 81¢ at close
• VOLUME 10.6× this market's 7-day norm, $7.2k in 24h
• BOOK Book 88.4:1 bid, $18.9k/$214 within 10¢
• UNUSUAL SIZE Largest trade $2.8k, 5.6× this market's typical big trade
  size baseline: 95th pct of 74 trades / 7d

Book 88.4:1 bid, $18.9k/$214 within 10¢ · spread 3.0¢

Triggers (2)

• 18 Aug 2026, 18:31 UTC: Band breach (upper): 82¢ → 84¢ (+2.5pts), confirmed over 30s
• 18 Aug 2026, 19:46 UTC: Sustained reprice: 84¢ → 80¢ (-4.5pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.83× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 7 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 84¢, drift +0.0pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 84¢, held +2.5ptspts
• Peak move: +2.5pts
• Held 0% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: yes
• Price at close: 81¢
• Graded from 180 snapshots