Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced +13.0pts: 86¢ at window start → 99¢ at close
• OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: above the upper bound 91¢ (band 86¢–91¢)
  band from 168 hourly obs / 7.0d
• BOOK Book 2.7:1 ask, $27.4k/$74.8k within 10¢
• UNUSUAL SIZE Largest trade $99.8k, 49.9× this market's typical big trade
  size baseline: 95th pct of 414 trades / 7d
• VOLUME 1.0× this market's 7-day norm, $41.6k in 24h

Book 2.7:1 ask, $27.4k/$74.8k within 10¢ · spread 0.3¢

Triggers (3)

• 18 Aug 2026, 18:07 UTC: Sustained reprice: 86¢ → 98¢ (+12.4pts), confirmed over 30s
• 18 Aug 2026, 18:10 UTC: Band breach (upper): 98¢ → 96¢ (-2.8pts), confirmed over 30s
• 18 Aug 2026, 18:21 UTC: Sustained reprice: 96¢ → 99¢ (+3.3pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 2.46× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 87 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 96¢, drift -2.9pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 99¢, held +13.0ptspts
• Peak move: +13.6pts
• Held 95% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: yes
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: yes
• Gave back half within 60m: no
• Price at close: 99¢
• Graded from 171 snapshots