Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced -1.0pts: 63¢ at window start → 62¢ at close
• OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: below the lower bound 63¢ (band 63¢–74¢)
  band from 167 hourly obs / 7.0d
• BOOK Book 3.2:1 ask, $2.1k/$6.8k within 10¢
• VOLUME 0.3× this market's 7-day norm, $819 in 24h

Book 3.2:1 ask, $2.1k/$6.8k within 10¢ · spread 2.0¢

Triggers (1)

• 18 Aug 2026, 16:17 UTC: Band breach (lower): 63¢ → 62¢ (-1.5pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.14× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 0 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 62¢, drift -0.5pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 62¢, held +1.0ptspts
• Peak move: +1.5pts
• Held 67% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: no
• Price at close: 62¢
• Graded from 180 snapshots