Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced +2.5pts: 96¢ at window start → 98¢ at close
• OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: above the upper bound 74¢ (band 63¢–74¢)
  band from 167 hourly obs / 7.0d
• VOLUME 32.3× this market's 7-day norm, $78.8k in 24h
• BOOK Book 3.7:1 ask, $9.7k/$36.2k within 10¢
• UNUSUAL SIZE Largest trade $6.2k, 9.6× this market's typical big trade
  size baseline: 95th pct of 229 trades / 7d

Book 3.7:1 ask, $9.7k/$36.2k within 10¢ · spread 0.5¢

Triggers (1)

• 18 Aug 2026, 18:18 UTC: Sustained reprice: 96¢ → 99¢ (+3.3pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.3× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 35 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 98¢, drift -1.2pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 99¢, held +2.6ptspts
• Peak move: +3.4pts
• Held 72% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: yes
• Price at close: 98¢
• Graded from 180 snapshots