Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced +5.5pts: 50¢ at window start → 56¢ at close
• OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: above the upper bound 51¢ (band 47¢–51¢)
  band from 166 hourly obs / 7.0d
• BOOK Book 2.1:1 bid, $21.6k/$10.2k within 10¢
• UNUSUAL SIZE Largest trade $519, 1.6× this market's typical big trade
  size baseline: 95th pct of 155 trades / 7d
• VOLUME 1.0× this market's 7-day norm, $15.0k in 24h

Book 2.1:1 bid, $21.6k/$10.2k within 10¢ · spread 1.0¢

Triggers (1)

• 18 Aug 2026, 18:09 UTC: Band breach (upper): 50¢ → 56¢ (+5.5pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 1.57× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 15 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 56¢, drift +1.0pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 56¢, held +5.5ptspts
• Peak move: +7.0pts
• Held 79% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: no
• Price at close: 56¢
• Graded from 180 snapshots