Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by September 30, 2026?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced +1.6pts: 69¢ at window start → 71¢ at close
• OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: above the upper bound 69¢ (band 53¢–69¢)
  band from 169 hourly obs / 7.0d
• BOOK Book 1.1:1 ask, $22.3k/$24.2k within 10¢
• UNUSUAL SIZE Largest trade $997, 2.4× this market's typical big trade
  size baseline: 95th pct of 1,160 trades / 7d
• VOLUME 1.2× this market's 7-day norm, $32.2k in 24h

Book 1.1:1 ask, $22.3k/$24.2k within 10¢ · spread 0.3¢

Triggers (1)

• 18 Aug 2026, 02:16 UTC: Band breach (upper): 69¢ → 70¢ (+0.5pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.03× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 66 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 70¢, drift +0.0pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 70¢, held +0.6ptspts
• Peak move: +1.6pts
• Held 100% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: no data
• Price at close: 71¢
• Graded from 180 snapshots