Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced -0.6pts: 19¢ at window start → 18¢ at close
• OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: below the lower bound 19¢ (band 19¢–25¢)
  band from 167 hourly obs / 7.0d
• VOLUME 2.6× this market's 7-day norm, $50.9k in 24h
• BOOK Book 1.1:1 ask, $10.9k/$11.8k within 10¢
• UNUSUAL SIZE Largest trade $378, 1.3× this market's typical big trade
  size baseline: 95th pct of 735 trades / 7d

Book 1.1:1 ask, $10.9k/$11.8k within 10¢ · spread 0.4¢

Triggers (1)

• 18 Aug 2026, 18:15 UTC: Band breach (lower): 19¢ → 19¢ (-0.5pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.08× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 7 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 19¢, drift +0.0pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 18¢, held +0.8ptspts
• Peak move: +0.8pts
• Held 80% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: no
• Price at close: 18¢
• Graded from 180 snapshots