Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced -1.5pts: 85¢ at window start → 83¢ at close
• VOLUME 3.9× this market's 7-day norm, $32.2k in 24h
• BOOK Book 2.6:1 ask, $4.1k/$10.9k within 10¢

Book 2.6:1 ask, $4.1k/$10.9k within 10¢ · spread 2.0¢

Triggers (1)

• 18 Aug 2026, 13:10 UTC: Sustained reprice: 85¢ → 82¢ (-3.0pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.86× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 4 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 81¢, drift +0.5pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 83¢, held +2.0ptspts
• Peak move: +3.5pts
• Held 43% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: yes
• Price at close: 83¢
• Graded from 180 snapshots