Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of August 2026?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced +1.2pts: 97¢ at window start → 98¢ at close
• OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: above the upper bound 97¢ (band 94¢–97¢)
  band from 165 hourly obs / 6.9d
• BOOK Book 1.9:1 bid, $94.2k/$50.0k within 10¢
• UNUSUAL SIZE Largest trade $2.4k, 7.2× this market's typical big trade
  size baseline: 95th pct of 766 trades / 7d
• VOLUME 0.5× this market's 7-day norm, $5.8k in 24h

Book 1.9:1 bid, $94.2k/$50.0k within 10¢ · spread 0.4¢

Triggers (1)

• 18 Aug 2026, 14:45 UTC: Band breach (upper): 97¢ → 98¢ (+0.6pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.15× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 12 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 98¢, drift -0.0pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 98¢, held +1.1ptspts
• Peak move: +1.4pts
• Held 89% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: no data
• Price at close: 98¢
• Graded from 180 snapshots