US x Iran diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced -2.0pts: 31¢ at window start → 28¢ at close
• OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: below the lower bound 30¢ (band 30¢–46¢)
  band from 164 hourly obs / 7.0d
• BOOK Book 3.6:1 ask, $3.9k/$14.0k within 10¢
• UNUSUAL SIZE Largest trade $923, 2.9× this market's typical big trade
  size baseline: 95th pct of 788 trades / 7d
• VOLUME 2.8× this market's 7-day norm, $31.9k in 24h

Book 3.6:1 ask, $3.9k/$14.0k within 10¢ · spread 1.0¢

Triggers (1)

• 18 Aug 2026, 03:08 UTC: Band breach (lower): 31¢ → 28¢ (-2.0pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.13× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 26 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 28¢, drift +0.0pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 28¢, held +2.0ptspts
• Peak move: +2.5pts
• Held 80% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: no data
• Price at close: 28¢
• Graded from 180 snapshots