US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced -3.5pts: 14¢ at window start → 11¢ at close
• OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: below the lower bound 16¢ (band 16¢–23¢)
  band from 166 hourly obs / 7.0d
• BOOK Book 1.3:1 bid, $17.8k/$13.3k within 10¢
• UNUSUAL SIZE Largest trade $5.7k, 15.6× this market's typical big trade
  size baseline: 95th pct of 790 trades / 7d
• VOLUME 1.0× this market's 7-day norm, $27.5k in 24h

Book 1.3:1 bid, $17.8k/$13.3k within 10¢ · spread 2.0¢

Triggers (1)

• 18 Aug 2026, 20:43 UTC: Sustained reprice: 14¢ → 11¢ (-4.0pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.59× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 37 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 11¢, drift -0.5pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 11¢, held +4.0ptspts
• Peak move: +4.0pts
• Held 87% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: no
• Price at close: 11¢
• Graded from 180 snapshots