US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced -0.6pts: 5¢ at window start → 4¢ at close
• OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: below the lower bound 5¢ (band 5¢–28¢)
  band from 156 hourly obs / 7.0d
• VOLUME 5.8× this market's 7-day norm, $498.4k in 24h
• BOOK Book 2.7:1 bid, $7.6k/$2.9k within 10¢
• UNUSUAL SIZE Largest trade $2.1k, 4.7× this market's typical big trade
  size baseline: 95th pct of 5,158 trades / 7d

Book 2.7:1 bid, $7.6k/$2.9k within 10¢ · spread 0.1¢

Triggers (1)

• 18 Aug 2026, 02:54 UTC: Band breach (lower): 5¢ → 4¢ (-0.6pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.03× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 35 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 4¢, drift +0.3pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 4¢, held +1.1ptspts
• Peak move: +1.3pts
• Held 48% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: no
• Price at close: 4¢
• Graded from 180 snapshots