US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced -2.9pts: 71¢ at window start → 68¢ at close
• OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: below the lower bound 73¢ (band 73¢–84¢)
  band from 167 hourly obs / 7.0d
• BOOK Book 1.9:1 ask, $8.2k/$15.5k within 10¢
• UNUSUAL SIZE Largest trade $4.5k, 11.3× this market's typical big trade
  size baseline: 95th pct of 1,608 trades / 7d
• VOLUME 1.1× this market's 7-day norm, $58.9k in 24h
  volume from the 16:35 UTC snapshot (no close reading)

Book 1.9:1 ask, $8.2k/$15.5k within 10¢ · spread 1.4¢

Triggers (1)

• 18 Aug 2026, 16:10 UTC: Sustained reprice: 71¢ → 68¢ (-3.0pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.29× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 33 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 68¢, drift +0.1pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 68¢, held +2.6ptspts
• Peak move: +3.4pts
• Held 88% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: no
• Price at close: 68¢
• Graded from 180 snapshots