US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced +3.9pts: 65¢ at window start → 69¢ at close
• OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: below the lower bound 73¢ (band 73¢–84¢)
  band from 166 hourly obs / 7.0d
• BOOK Book 1.4:1 ask, $9.3k/$13.0k within 10¢
• UNUSUAL SIZE Largest trade $2.0k, 5.0× this market's typical big trade
  size baseline: 95th pct of 1,636 trades / 7d
• VOLUME 1.1× this market's 7-day norm, $58.9k in 24h

Book 1.4:1 ask, $9.3k/$13.0k within 10¢ · spread 0.9¢

Triggers (1)

• 18 Aug 2026, 18:33 UTC: Sustained reprice: 65¢ → 68¢ (+3.2pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.29× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 27 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 68¢, drift +0.0pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 68¢, held +3.3ptspts
• Peak move: +4.0pts
• Held 96% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: yes
• Price at close: 69¢
• Graded from 180 snapshots