UNSC Resolution Endorsing Final U.S.-Iran Deal by December 31?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced -10.5pts: 21¢ at window start → 11¢ at close
• OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: below the lower bound 19¢ (band 19¢–23¢)
  band from 167 hourly obs / 7.0d
• VOLUME 3.6× this market's 7-day norm, $10.4k in 24h
• BOOK Book 2.8:1 bid, $2.6k/$915 within 10¢

Book 2.8:1 bid, $2.6k/$915 within 10¢ · spread 1.0¢

Triggers (3)

• 18 Aug 2026, 18:31 UTC: Band breach (lower): 21¢ → 12¢ (-9.0pts), confirmed over 30s
• 18 Aug 2026, 18:39 UTC: Sustained reprice: 12¢ → 8¢ (-4.0pts), confirmed over 30s
• 18 Aug 2026, 19:42 UTC: Sustained reprice: 8¢ → 13¢ (+5.0pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 2.25× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 10 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 12¢, drift +0.0pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 11¢, held +10.5ptspts
• Peak move: +14.5pts
• Held 72% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: yes
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: yes
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: yes
• Gave back half within 60m: no
• Price at close: 11¢
• Graded from 180 snapshots