UNSC Resolution Endorsing Final U.S.-Iran Deal by December 31?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced +4.0pts: 11¢ at window start → 15¢ at close
• OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: below the lower bound 19¢ (band 19¢–23¢)
  band from 166 hourly obs / 7.0d
• VOLUME 4.0× this market's 7-day norm, $11.9k in 24h
• BOOK Book 1.1:1 bid, $2.9k/$2.6k within 10¢

Book 1.1:1 bid, $2.9k/$2.6k within 10¢ · spread 2.0¢

Triggers (1)

• 18 Aug 2026, 20:54 UTC: Sustained reprice: 11¢ → 14¢ (+3.0pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.75× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 1 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 14¢, drift +0.5pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 14¢, held +3.0ptspts
• Peak move: +4.0pts
• Held 100% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: no data
• Price at close: 15¢
• Graded from 180 snapshots