Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced -1.0pts: 37¢ at window start → 36¢ at close
• OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: below the lower bound 36¢ (band 36¢–47¢)
  band from 164 hourly obs / 7.0d
• BOOK Book 1.2:1 bid, $54.9k/$44.4k within 10¢
• UNUSUAL SIZE Largest trade $1.1k, 1.3× this market's typical big trade
  size baseline: 95th pct of 1,528 trades / 7d
• VOLUME 1.0× this market's 7-day norm, $91.0k in 24h

Book 1.2:1 bid, $54.9k/$44.4k within 10¢ · spread 1.0¢

Triggers (1)

• 18 Aug 2026, 21:46 UTC: Band breach (lower): 37¢ → 36¢ (-1.0pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.1× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 13 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 36¢, drift +0.0pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 36¢, held +1.0ptspts
• Peak move: +1.0pts
• Held 100% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: yes
• Price at close: 36¢
• Graded from 180 snapshots