Iran charges Hormuz fees by October 31?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced +0.0pts: 43¢ at window start → 43¢ at close
• VOLUME 2.3× this market's 7-day norm, $5.8k in 24h
• BOOK Book 2.1:1 bid, $6.6k/$3.1k within 10¢
• UNUSUAL SIZE Largest trade $719, 6.7× this market's typical big trade
  size baseline: 95th pct of 378 trades / 7d

Book 2.1:1 bid, $6.6k/$3.1k within 10¢ · spread 2.0¢

Triggers (1)

• 18 Aug 2026, 20:56 UTC: Band breach (upper): 43¢ → 44¢ (+0.5pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.06× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 3 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 44¢, drift +0.0pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 45¢, held +1.5ptspts
• Peak move: +1.5pts
• Held 0% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: yes
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: yes
• Gave back half within 60m: no
• Price at close: 43¢
• Graded from 180 snapshots