Florida Republican Governor primary: James Fishback vote percent

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced +5.6pts: 94¢ at window start → 100¢ at close
• OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: above the upper bound 99¢ (band 93¢–99¢)
  band from 167 hourly obs / 7.0d
• VOLUME 11.9× this market's 7-day norm, $140.3k in 24h
• BOOK Book one-sided bid, $472.5k/$0 within 10¢
• UNUSUAL SIZE Largest trade $13.0k, 3.6× this market's typical big trade
  size baseline: 95th pct of 408 trades / 7d

depth $472,453/$0 within 10¢ · spread 0.1¢

Triggers (2)

• 18 Aug 2026, 23:19 UTC: Sustained reprice: 94¢ → 97¢ (+3.0pts), confirmed over 30s
• 18 Aug 2026, 23:23 UTC: Band breach (upper): 97¢ → 99¢ (+1.7pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.51× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 45 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 98¢, drift +0.9pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 100¢, held +5.5ptspts
• Peak move: +5.7pts
• Held 100% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: yes
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: yes
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: yes
• Gave back half within 60m: no data
• Price at close: 100¢
• Graded from 180 snapshots