China x Philippines military clash before 2027?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced -3.0pts: 35¢ at window start → 32¢ at close
• OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: below the lower bound 32¢ (band 32¢–35¢)
  band from 167 hourly obs / 6.9d
• BOOK Book 1.2:1 bid, $9.7k/$8.1k within 10¢
• VOLUME $22.8k in 24h (7-day norm still forming)
  volume summed from the market's own trade tape

Book 1.2:1 bid, $9.7k/$8.1k within 10¢ · spread 1.0¢

Triggers (2)

• 18 Aug 2026, 02:42 UTC: Sustained reprice: 35¢ → 31¢ (-3.5pts), confirmed over 30s
• 18 Aug 2026, 02:56 UTC: Band breach (lower): 31¢ → 31¢ (-0.5pts), confirmed over 31s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.78× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 6 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 31¢, drift +0.5pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 32¢, held +3.0ptspts
• Peak move: +4.5pts
• Held 67% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: no
• Price at close: 32¢
• Graded from 179 snapshots