Best AI at the end of 2026?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced +1.2pts: 68¢ at window start → 69¢ at close
• OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: above the upper bound 69¢ (band 65¢–69¢)
  band from 160 hourly obs / 7.0d
• BOOK Book 5.3:1 ask, $1.5k/$8.0k within 10¢
• VOLUME 1.2× this market's 7-day norm, $8.8k in 24h

Book 5.3:1 ask, $1.5k/$8.0k within 10¢ · spread 2.5¢

Triggers (1)

• 18 Aug 2026, 06:29 UTC: Band breach (upper): 68¢ → 70¢ (+1.7pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.39× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 5 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 70¢, drift -0.2pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 70¢, held +1.6ptspts
• Peak move: +1.8pts
• Held 71% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: no data
• Price at close: 69¢
• Graded from 180 snapshots