OUTSIDE BAND
FINALISED: FROZEN
Kalshi
Best AI at the end of 2026?
Window 18 Aug 2026, 00:29 UTC → 18 Aug 2026, 01:59 UTC
Price at window start 68¢ → at trigger 69¢ → at close 69¢
YES up · NO down
Resolves 31 Dec 2026, 15:00 UTC
Frozen payload
- REPRICED Repriced +1.4pts: 68¢ at window start → 69¢ at close
- BOOK Book 1.0:1 ask, $7.8k/$8.2k within 10¢
- VOLUME 1.2× this market's 7-day norm, $8.8k in 24h
Book 1.0:1 ask, $7.8k/$8.2k within 10¢ · spread 0.1¢
Triggers (1)
- 18 Aug 2026, 00:29 UTC: Band breach (upper): 68¢ → 69¢ (+1.4pts), confirmed over 30s
Context
- Opening move ≈ 0.31× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
- 16 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)
Outcome: graded at window close
- +2m after alert: 69¢, drift +0.0pts in the alert direction
- +30m: 69¢, held +1.4ptspts
- Peak move: +1.4pts
- Held 100% of the peak move at close
- Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
- Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
- Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
- Gave back half within 60m: no
- Price at close: 69¢
- Graded from 180 snapshots