Yabloko Effectively Banned From 2026 Russian Elections by September 17?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced +1.2pts: 98¢ at window start → 100¢ at close
• OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: above the upper bound 98¢ (band 95¢–98¢)
  band from 167 hourly obs / 6.9d
• VOLUME 7.2× this market's 7-day norm, $50.9k in 24h
• BOOK Book 1.1:1 bid, $64.1k/$58.0k within 10¢
• UNUSUAL SIZE Largest trade $2.3k, 2.4× this market's typical big trade
  size baseline: 95th pct of 244 trades / 7d

Book 1.1:1 bid, $64.1k/$58.0k within 10¢ · spread 0.1¢

Triggers (1)

• 17 Aug 2026, 12:34 UTC: Band breach (upper): 98¢ → 99¢ (+0.6pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.2× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 18 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 99¢, drift +0.0pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 99¢, held +0.7ptspts
• Peak move: +1.2pts
• Held 100% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: no data
• Price at close: 100¢
• Graded from 180 snapshots