Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced -1.5pts: 73¢ at window start → 72¢ at close
• VOLUME 4.9× this market's 7-day norm, $266.0k in 24h
• BOOK Book 4.4:1 ask, $84.1k/$369.8k within 10¢
• UNUSUAL SIZE Largest trade $4.4k, 10.0× this market's typical big trade
  size baseline: 95th pct of 1,765 trades / 7d

Book 4.4:1 ask, $84.1k/$369.8k within 10¢ · spread 1.0¢

Triggers (1)

• 17 Aug 2026, 21:04 UTC: Band breach (upper): 73¢ → 74¢ (+0.5pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.07× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 9 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 73¢, drift -1.0pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 72¢, held -1.5ptspts
• Peak move: +0.5pts
• Held 0% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: yes
• Price at close: 72¢
• Graded from 180 snapshots