Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced -4.0pts: 72¢ at window start → 68¢ at close
• BOOK Book 2.0:1 ask, $58.6k/$119.8k within 10¢
• UNUSUAL SIZE Largest trade $305, 1.0× this market's typical big trade
  size baseline: 95th pct of 2,266 trades / 7d
• VOLUME 1.1× this market's 7-day norm, $60.7k in 24h

Book 2.0:1 ask, $58.6k/$119.8k within 10¢ · spread 1.0¢

Triggers (1)

• 17 Aug 2026, 02:36 UTC: Sustained reprice: 72¢ → 68¢ (-3.5pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.51× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 15 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 67¢, drift +1.0pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 67¢, held +5.0ptspts
• Peak move: +5.0pts
• Held 80% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: yes
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: yes
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: yes
• Gave back half within 60m: no
• Price at close: 68¢
• Graded from 180 snapshots