Will Trump be impeached?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced +1.0pts: 56¢ at window start → 56¢ at close
• VOLUME 6.6× this market's 7-day norm, $8.6k in 24h
• BOOK Book 10.6:1 ask, $1.1k/$12.1k within 10¢
• UNUSUAL SIZE Largest trade $477, 1.7× this market's typical big trade
  size baseline: 95th pct of 270 trades / 7d

Book 10.6:1 ask, $1.1k/$12.1k within 10¢ · spread 1.0¢

Triggers (1)

• 17 Aug 2026, 15:51 UTC: Band breach (lower): 56¢ → 52¢ (-3.5pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.88× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 11 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 54¢, drift -1.5pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 56¢, held +0.0ptspts
• Peak move: +3.5pts
• Held 0% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: yes
• Price at close: 56¢
• Graded from 180 snapshots