Will Trump be impeached?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced +1.0pts: 56¢ at window start → 57¢ at close
• OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: above the upper bound 57¢ (band 53¢–57¢)
  band from 162 hourly obs / 6.9d
• VOLUME 6.3× this market's 7-day norm, $8.8k in 24h
• BOOK Book 5.6:1 bid, $72.2k/$12.8k within 10¢

Book 5.6:1 bid, $72.2k/$12.8k within 10¢ · spread 1.0¢

Triggers (1)

• 17 Aug 2026, 22:24 UTC: Band breach (upper): 56¢ → 57¢ (+0.5pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.13× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 2 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 57¢, drift +0.0pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 57¢, held +0.5ptspts
• Peak move: +1.0pts
• Held 100% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: no
• Price at close: 57¢
• Graded from 180 snapshots