Will Trump be impeached?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced +1.0pts: 56¢ at window start → 57¢ at close
• OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: above the upper bound 57¢ (band 53¢–57¢)
  band from 163 hourly obs / 6.9d
• VOLUME 2.9× this market's 7-day norm, $3.1k in 24h
• BOOK Book 5.4:1 ask, $2.4k/$12.8k within 10¢

Book 5.4:1 ask, $2.4k/$12.8k within 10¢ · spread 1.0¢

Triggers (1)

• 17 Aug 2026, 11:54 UTC: Band breach (upper): 56¢ → 57¢ (+1.0pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.23× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 3 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 57¢, drift +0.0pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 58¢, held +1.5ptspts
• Peak move: +2.0pts
• Held 50% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: yes
• Price at close: 57¢
• Graded from 180 snapshots