Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced -4.0pts: 75¢ at window start → 71¢ at close
• BOOK Book 5.5:1 ask, $102.0k/$557.4k within 10¢
• UNUSUAL SIZE Largest trade $4.9k, 4.9× this market's typical big trade
  size baseline: 95th pct of 4,962 trades / 7d
• VOLUME 1.2× this market's 7-day norm, $357.9k in 24h

Book 5.5:1 ask, $102.0k/$557.4k within 10¢ · spread 1.0¢

Triggers (1)

• 17 Aug 2026, 18:21 UTC: Sustained reprice: 75¢ → 71¢ (-4.0pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.23× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 115 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 71¢, drift +0.0pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 70¢, held +5.0ptspts
• Peak move: +5.0pts
• Held 80% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: yes
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: no
• Price at close: 71¢
• Graded from 180 snapshots