Will the Republicans win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced -1.0pts: 43¢ at window start → 42¢ at close
• OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: below the lower bound 42¢ (band 42¢–46¢)
  band from 167 hourly obs / 6.9d
• BOOK Book 4.0:1 ask, $10.9k/$43.8k within 10¢
• VOLUME 0.5× this market's 7-day norm, $8.4k in 24h

Book 4.0:1 ask, $10.9k/$43.8k within 10¢ · spread 1.0¢

Triggers (1)

• 17 Aug 2026, 01:44 UTC: Band breach (lower): 43¢ → 42¢ (-1.0pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.25× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 33 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 42¢, drift +0.0pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 42¢, held +1.0ptspts
• Peak move: +2.0pts
• Held 50% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: no
• Price at close: 42¢
• Graded from 180 snapshots