Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced +5.0pts: 25¢ at window start → 30¢ at close
• VOLUME 1.6× this market's 7-day norm, $530.3k in 24h
• BOOK Book 5.8:1 bid, $370.1k/$63.6k within 10¢
• UNUSUAL SIZE Largest trade $17.3k, 11.1× this market's typical big trade
  size baseline: 95th pct of 2,491 trades / 7d

Book 5.8:1 bid, $370.1k/$63.6k within 10¢ · spread 1.0¢

Triggers (1)

• 17 Aug 2026, 18:16 UTC: Sustained reprice: 25¢ → 28¢ (+4.0pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.25× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 162 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 30¢, drift +1.0pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 28¢, held +4.0ptspts
• Peak move: +5.0pts
• Held 100% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: yes
• Gave back half within 60m: no
• Price at close: 30¢
• Graded from 180 snapshots