Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced +5.5pts: 24¢ at window start → 29¢ at close
• BOOK Book 2.0:1 ask, $3.1k/$6.2k within 10¢
• VOLUME 1.0× this market's 7-day norm, $2.1k in 24h

Book 2.0:1 ask, $3.1k/$6.2k within 10¢ · spread 2.0¢

Triggers (1)

• 17 Aug 2026, 18:17 UTC: Sustained reprice: 24¢ → 27¢ (+3.5pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.17× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 1 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 27¢, drift +0.0pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 30¢, held +6.0ptspts
• Peak move: +6.0pts
• Held 92% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: yes
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: yes
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: yes
• Gave back half within 60m: no
• Price at close: 29¢
• Graded from 180 snapshots