Will Strait of Hormuz traffic not return to normal in 2026?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced +6.5pts: 59¢ at window start → 66¢ at close
• OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: above the upper bound 57¢ (band 53¢–57¢)
  band from 166 hourly obs / 7.0d
• BOOK Book 1.0:1 ask, $7.3k/$7.5k within 10¢
• UNUSUAL SIZE Largest trade $1.1k, 4.3× this market's typical big trade
  size baseline: 95th pct of 198 trades / 7d
• VOLUME 1.0× this market's 7-day norm, $3.6k in 24h

Book 1.0:1 ask, $7.3k/$7.5k within 10¢ · spread 3.0¢

Triggers (2)

• 17 Aug 2026, 18:47 UTC: Sustained reprice: 59¢ → 63¢ (+3.5pts), confirmed over 30s
• 17 Aug 2026, 19:11 UTC: Sustained reprice: 63¢ → 66¢ (+3.0pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.78× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 6 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 62¢, drift -0.5pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 66¢, held +6.5ptspts
• Peak move: +6.5pts
• Held 100% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: yes
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: yes
• Gave back half within 60m: no
• Price at close: 66¢
• Graded from 180 snapshots