Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced -3.4pts: 19¢ at window start → 16¢ at close
• OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: below the lower bound 19¢ (band 19¢–26¢)
  band from 167 hourly obs / 7.0d
• VOLUME 2.6× this market's 7-day norm, $51.6k in 24h
• BOOK Book 1.6:1 bid, $13.6k/$8.4k within 10¢
• UNUSUAL SIZE Largest trade $2.4k, 9.0× this market's typical big trade
  size baseline: 95th pct of 826 trades / 7d

Book 1.6:1 bid, $13.6k/$8.4k within 10¢ · spread 1.6¢

Triggers (3)

• 17 Aug 2026, 20:55 UTC: Band breach (lower): 19¢ → 16¢ (-3.8pts), confirmed over 30s
• 17 Aug 2026, 21:16 UTC: Sustained reprice: 16¢ → 19¢ (+3.6pts), confirmed over 30s
• 17 Aug 2026, 22:09 UTC: Sustained reprice: 19¢ → 16¢ (-3.0pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.53× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 31 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 13¢, drift +2.8pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 18¢, held +1.3ptspts
• Peak move: +6.6pts
• Held 51% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: yes
• Price at close: 16¢
• Graded from 180 snapshots