Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced -1.0pts: 86¢ at window start → 85¢ at close
• VOLUME 2.7× this market's 7-day norm, $22.4k in 24h
• BOOK Book 1.3:1 bid, $23.2k/$18.3k within 10¢

Book 1.3:1 bid, $23.2k/$18.3k within 10¢ · spread 1.0¢

Triggers (2)

• 17 Aug 2026, 21:32 UTC: Sustained reprice: 86¢ → 89¢ (+3.5pts), confirmed over 30s
• 17 Aug 2026, 22:07 UTC: Sustained reprice: 89¢ → 85¢ (-4.5pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.78× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 6 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 89¢, drift +0.0pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 89¢, held +3.0ptspts
• Peak move: +4.0pts
• Held 0% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: yes
• Price at close: 85¢
• Graded from 180 snapshots