Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced +2.0pts: 83¢ at window start → 85¢ at close
• OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: above the upper bound 84¢ (band 80¢–84¢)
  band from 168 hourly obs / 7.0d
• VOLUME 1.7× this market's 7-day norm, $14.0k in 24h
• BOOK Book 1.4:1 ask, $21.2k/$29.6k within 10¢

Book 1.4:1 ask, $21.2k/$29.6k within 10¢ · spread 2.0¢

Triggers (2)

• 17 Aug 2026, 09:49 UTC: Band breach (upper): 83¢ → 85¢ (+1.5pts), confirmed over 30s
• 17 Aug 2026, 10:10 UTC: Sustained reprice: 85¢ → 88¢ (+3.0pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.28× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 8 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 85¢, drift +0.0pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 88¢, held +4.5ptspts
• Peak move: +4.5pts
• Held 44% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: yes
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: yes
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: yes
• Price at close: 85¢
• Graded from 180 snapshots