Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of August 2026?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced +0.9pts: 97¢ at window start → 97¢ at close
• OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: above the upper bound 97¢ (band 94¢–97¢)
  band from 167 hourly obs / 7.0d
• BOOK Book 2.0:1 bid, $106.6k/$53.5k within 10¢
• VOLUME 0.5× this market's 7-day norm, $5.8k in 24h

Book 2.0:1 bid, $106.6k/$53.5k within 10¢ · spread 0.7¢

Triggers (1)

• 17 Aug 2026, 09:12 UTC: Band breach (upper): 97¢ → 97¢ (+0.5pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.16× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 1 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 97¢, drift +0.0pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 97¢, held +0.8ptspts
• Peak move: +0.8pts
• Held 100% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: no data
• Price at close: 97¢
• Graded from 180 snapshots