Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of August 2026?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced +1.6pts: 94¢ at window start → 96¢ at close
• OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: above the upper bound 95¢ (band 90¢–95¢)
  band from 165 hourly obs / 6.9d
• BOOK Book 7.3:1 ask, $8.3k/$60.7k within 10¢
• VOLUME $2.8k in 24h (7-day norm still forming)
  volume summed from the market's own trade tape

Book 7.3:1 ask, $8.3k/$60.7k within 10¢ · spread 1.1¢

Triggers (1)

• 17 Aug 2026, 20:57 UTC: Band breach (upper): 94¢ → 96¢ (+2.0pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.5× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 7 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 96¢, drift +0.0pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 96¢, held +1.8ptspts
• Peak move: +2.5pts
• Held 62% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: no
• Price at close: 96¢
• Graded from 179 snapshots