US x Iran diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced +0.0pts: 31¢ at window start → 31¢ at close
• VOLUME 2.8× this market's 7-day norm, $31.8k in 24h
• BOOK Book 1.1:1 ask, $9.0k/$10.1k within 10¢

Book 1.1:1 ask, $9.0k/$10.1k within 10¢ · spread 1.0¢

Triggers (1)

• 17 Aug 2026, 22:52 UTC: Band breach (lower): 31¢ → 30¢ (-1.0pts), confirmed over 30s

Context artifact

@FirstSquawk · X: posted 1h 14m before the break

ERDOGAN TOLD TRUMP IT IS IMPORTANT TO CONTINUE TALKS WITH IRAN TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF DIPLOMACY, WITH TURKEY READY TO CONTRIBUTE, AND SAID ISRAEL IS ATTACKING PALESTINIANS IN GAZA WHEN THE SECOND PHASE OF THE PEACE PLAN WAS SUPPOSED TO TAKE EFFECT. SEPARATELY, A TURKISH DIPLOMATIC SOURCE SAYS THE TURKISH FOREIGN MINISTER DISCUSSED EFFORTS TO OPEN THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ AND CONTINUE THE U.S.-IRAN CEASEFIRE IN A CALL WITH HIS IRANIAN COUNTERPART.

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Shown as timing context from the sources TruthPing watches. Its appearance near the move is an observation, not an explanation.

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.05× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 5 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 30¢, drift +0.0pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 31¢, held +0.0ptspts
• Peak move: +1.0pts
• Held 0% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: yes
• Price at close: 31¢
• Graded from 180 snapshots