US x Iran diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced -1.0pts: 32¢ at window start → 31¢ at close
• VOLUME 3.5× this market's 7-day norm, $36.4k in 24h
• BOOK Book 1.1:1 ask, $8.3k/$8.8k within 10¢
• UNUSUAL SIZE Largest trade $483, 1.6× this market's typical big trade
  size baseline: 95th pct of 728 trades / 7d

Book 1.1:1 ask, $8.3k/$8.8k within 10¢ · spread 1.0¢

Triggers (1)

• 17 Aug 2026, 15:21 UTC: Band breach (lower): 32¢ → 31¢ (-1.0pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.05× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 3 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 31¢, drift +0.0pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 31¢, held +1.0ptspts
• Peak move: +1.0pts
• Held 100% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: no
• Price at close: 31¢
• Graded from 180 snapshots